Peak Oil

There’s likely little doubt at this point, but I just wanted to point out that Peak Oil is mainstream consensus at this point. Buisnessweek has an article about Charles Maxwell, “the No. 1 analyst in his field [energy],” saying that “he now foresees unprecedented stress on the world economy as peak oil production arrives in or about 2015.”

Just think about that: if Maxwell is right, we’ve still got seven years until peak oil, and gas is $4 a gallon. Of course, he could be wrong. ASPO has claimed that peak oil was actually last year. If we figure that they’ve missed production growth and demand destruction that the ‘No. 1 analyst’ has accounted for, things will actually get much worse in the next decade. But whether it’s already happened or the worst is yet to come, it’s much more likely that it’s immanent than that it’s a myth. Yet there are still some peak oil deniers out there muddying the waters of consensus. What’s worst, the principle deniers are the ones best situated to know the truth and benefit from it, and their denials may actually be against their own pecuniary interest! Weird.

Thankfully, the financial analysts that businesses listen to is actually criticizing ExxonMobil for its shortsightedness:

“It really does Rex Tillerson no good to keep denying that oil production will be peaking,” he says. “Exxon’s business plan is from the past 150 years.”

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